2021 ACBA Season preview
american league
- BY John cheslock
We haven't seen baseball in the ACBA in over 500 days and during that time, there has been a mountain of activity that has significantly altered the landscape of the league. There have been two drafts with contract signings, there have been two buyout periods. Just in the last 50 days alone there have been more than 30 trades with all 14 teams getting involved, including a record setting day on the 19th with 7 trades involving 11 teams. We’ve seen multiple teams’ ownership change hands and each time there is a different management style, resulting in cutting or extending contracts and retooling entire rosters.
All of these things contribute to a reshaping of the environment of the ACBA, bringing us to the state it’s in, here in the spring of 2021.
"We're a long way removed from 2019," said one AL exec. "It's a different world and the shakeup around the league? It's anyone's guess as to how this plays out."
Well, fortunately for that exec, and the rest of you, the folks here at ACBA headquarters have that little problem covered. It’s been our job to give you a glimpse of how this season could unfold after all the dust that the last 500 days kicked up has finally settled back down. So, without further delay, here are the 2021 American League projected results.
_________________________________
With what can be viewed as a long, dark winter, the Detroit Blue Devils used only the draft to build upon their base of core players and it won't be enough to compete in what is largely still considered to be the greater of the two divisions in the ACBA. While the NL has a growing group of active owners, and thus stronger teams being built, the balance of power is still leaning to the AL side of the spectrum.
Doug Robinson's Devils had a handful of nice adds through the draft, but it's hard for anyone running in these circles, the prediction-guru circles that is, to really give them a bump off of their basement finish. Falling a game back from their 2019 campaign with no change in their division placement, 2021 may be a long season.
Detroit Blue Devils: 7th place finish, 39-69
With the best 1-2 punch in the game between DeGrom and Bieber, the Black Diamonds will stay in the playoff hunt this season. But without a deep lineup like much of the rest of the AL, it will be tough to navigate their way into September. If Lehigh Valley fails to reach the playoffs, it’ll be the offense that falters. Ace of staff Jacob DeGrom is in his free agent year and owner Nick Keene will face some unwanted changes after 2021, so in all likelihood this is a must-win type of year before the fans begin to grumble. The AL is so strong and deep, it'll be a tall order to crack the upper echelon. They will have success in terms of wins and losses, but ultimately it's an invitation to the September Classic that all teams are seeking, and without that, winning percentage has little value.
Lehigh Valley Black Diamonds: 6th place finish, 57-51
Silent for much of the offseason, which really has been 18 months long, Mike Lewis and the Sacramento Solons lost precious ground amidst the rivals of the AL. While teams like Senhollow, Lehigh Valley and Michigan were proactively looking to improve their clubs through trades, the Solons seemed to be content to rest on their laurels after winning the AL Division in 2019.
Much like Detroit, the Solons built only through the draft, and even that was slim pickings with the loss of their first and second round picks from transactions made in years gone by. While Sacramento's complacency didn't cost them in terms of their own personnel, they did fall behind the teams who were fighting to reach the top of the hill. Getting there is hard work. Staying there is harder and Sacramento's time at the top will be short lived. They still have a very good team, but they will tumble a bit from their 2019 finish, missing out on the playoffs.
Sacramento Solons: 5th place finish, 57-51
Tim Aspin's Flint Failures have been battling in the AL since their lone division title in 2014. Initially dropping to 5th place a year later, the Failures have been creeping back up the ranks each year. According to their trend, it looked like 2020 was a potential division winning season. But much has happened in the span of time since 2019 and some of their momentum may have been lost. Still a well rounded team, the Failures are competing not only against time, but a slew of owners vying for the same prize. Acquiring Bo Bichette this offseason in a trade with Michigan will certainly improve their '21 chances, if not damage their future in the process, but the "win now" cry from their corner of the world puts Aspin squarely on the hot seat and immediate results are a premium. The "worry about tomorrow, tomorrow" poster hanging in the front office rings true today. Unfortunately the AL is a dog eat dog division and Flint takes a step back from their second place finish in 2019. That's not to say September won't be more kind, but that's for another article.
Flint Failures: 4th place finish, 58-50
Sam Siegel revolutionized the way ACBA teams approached the draft when he began scooping up minor league players in early rounds shortly after his arrival into the league in 2008. Many of those players are long gone, some are still around and a few have delivered on the expectations that those drafts had presented. This year, however, with a solid core already in place, the integral piece to prop Senhollow up was in a trade with Austin at the start of the draft, acquiring shortstop Trevor Story. While Siegel has surely compromised a sizable chunk of the future, the fans have demanded action. The last time Senhollow won the AL Division Title was in 2013. Now, they have a team built to get back to the top. Getting past a couple teams, however, is something the owner will have to undertake on a night by night basis over the course of the summer.
Senhollow Abory: 3rd place finish, 60-48
Utah's Leroy Estep has quietly gone about his work, keeping a low profile and building what is expected to be a team with the ability to compete for the AL crown. Driven by the results of their 2019 6th place finish, the Spikes have worked hard to return to AL glory. Clubhouse leaders Trea Turner and Luis Roberts front a power-studded core which got stronger through a couple of trades in February and a front loaded draft (4 picks in the first two rounds), filling in holes with key players like Dominic Smith, Whit Merrifield and Liam Hendriks.
After back to back division titles in 2017 & 2018, missing the playoffs in 2019 was a humbling experience and an opportunity to ground themselves. That opportunity seems to have not gone wasted. In 2021, the Spikes should see a dramatic improvement, finishing second in the AL and hosting a first round playoff series.
Utah Golden Spikes: 2nd place finish, 61-47
Landing just outside of the playoff pool in 2019, the Mud Hens have been on a mission to reclaim their spot atop the AL when they won the division in 2015 and 2016.
Following the death of their star pitcher Jose Fernandez during the 2016 World Series, the Mud Hens went into a tailspin. They failed to win another World Series game that year, losing 4 straight to Green Bay. They followed that up with 5th, 4th and 5th place finishes in the AL over the next 3 seasons.
Some people within the organization believe the year off in 2020 was a blessing in disguise; a chance to reset the compass and get things back on track. It looks like those folks may be right, as the Mud Hens have put together a power team ready to take on the world. Garnering top end talent at each position, Michigan will be the most difficult team to topple in a division that has plenty of teams that are going to be difficult to topple. The only thing stopping Michigan will be the giant ego covering the diamond. If the group can stay out of its own way and play as a team, this could be an ugly season for 13 other organizations.
Michigan Mud Hens: 1st place finish, 67-41
All of these things contribute to a reshaping of the environment of the ACBA, bringing us to the state it’s in, here in the spring of 2021.
"We're a long way removed from 2019," said one AL exec. "It's a different world and the shakeup around the league? It's anyone's guess as to how this plays out."
Well, fortunately for that exec, and the rest of you, the folks here at ACBA headquarters have that little problem covered. It’s been our job to give you a glimpse of how this season could unfold after all the dust that the last 500 days kicked up has finally settled back down. So, without further delay, here are the 2021 American League projected results.
_________________________________
With what can be viewed as a long, dark winter, the Detroit Blue Devils used only the draft to build upon their base of core players and it won't be enough to compete in what is largely still considered to be the greater of the two divisions in the ACBA. While the NL has a growing group of active owners, and thus stronger teams being built, the balance of power is still leaning to the AL side of the spectrum.
Doug Robinson's Devils had a handful of nice adds through the draft, but it's hard for anyone running in these circles, the prediction-guru circles that is, to really give them a bump off of their basement finish. Falling a game back from their 2019 campaign with no change in their division placement, 2021 may be a long season.
Detroit Blue Devils: 7th place finish, 39-69
With the best 1-2 punch in the game between DeGrom and Bieber, the Black Diamonds will stay in the playoff hunt this season. But without a deep lineup like much of the rest of the AL, it will be tough to navigate their way into September. If Lehigh Valley fails to reach the playoffs, it’ll be the offense that falters. Ace of staff Jacob DeGrom is in his free agent year and owner Nick Keene will face some unwanted changes after 2021, so in all likelihood this is a must-win type of year before the fans begin to grumble. The AL is so strong and deep, it'll be a tall order to crack the upper echelon. They will have success in terms of wins and losses, but ultimately it's an invitation to the September Classic that all teams are seeking, and without that, winning percentage has little value.
Lehigh Valley Black Diamonds: 6th place finish, 57-51
Silent for much of the offseason, which really has been 18 months long, Mike Lewis and the Sacramento Solons lost precious ground amidst the rivals of the AL. While teams like Senhollow, Lehigh Valley and Michigan were proactively looking to improve their clubs through trades, the Solons seemed to be content to rest on their laurels after winning the AL Division in 2019.
Much like Detroit, the Solons built only through the draft, and even that was slim pickings with the loss of their first and second round picks from transactions made in years gone by. While Sacramento's complacency didn't cost them in terms of their own personnel, they did fall behind the teams who were fighting to reach the top of the hill. Getting there is hard work. Staying there is harder and Sacramento's time at the top will be short lived. They still have a very good team, but they will tumble a bit from their 2019 finish, missing out on the playoffs.
Sacramento Solons: 5th place finish, 57-51
Tim Aspin's Flint Failures have been battling in the AL since their lone division title in 2014. Initially dropping to 5th place a year later, the Failures have been creeping back up the ranks each year. According to their trend, it looked like 2020 was a potential division winning season. But much has happened in the span of time since 2019 and some of their momentum may have been lost. Still a well rounded team, the Failures are competing not only against time, but a slew of owners vying for the same prize. Acquiring Bo Bichette this offseason in a trade with Michigan will certainly improve their '21 chances, if not damage their future in the process, but the "win now" cry from their corner of the world puts Aspin squarely on the hot seat and immediate results are a premium. The "worry about tomorrow, tomorrow" poster hanging in the front office rings true today. Unfortunately the AL is a dog eat dog division and Flint takes a step back from their second place finish in 2019. That's not to say September won't be more kind, but that's for another article.
Flint Failures: 4th place finish, 58-50
Sam Siegel revolutionized the way ACBA teams approached the draft when he began scooping up minor league players in early rounds shortly after his arrival into the league in 2008. Many of those players are long gone, some are still around and a few have delivered on the expectations that those drafts had presented. This year, however, with a solid core already in place, the integral piece to prop Senhollow up was in a trade with Austin at the start of the draft, acquiring shortstop Trevor Story. While Siegel has surely compromised a sizable chunk of the future, the fans have demanded action. The last time Senhollow won the AL Division Title was in 2013. Now, they have a team built to get back to the top. Getting past a couple teams, however, is something the owner will have to undertake on a night by night basis over the course of the summer.
Senhollow Abory: 3rd place finish, 60-48
Utah's Leroy Estep has quietly gone about his work, keeping a low profile and building what is expected to be a team with the ability to compete for the AL crown. Driven by the results of their 2019 6th place finish, the Spikes have worked hard to return to AL glory. Clubhouse leaders Trea Turner and Luis Roberts front a power-studded core which got stronger through a couple of trades in February and a front loaded draft (4 picks in the first two rounds), filling in holes with key players like Dominic Smith, Whit Merrifield and Liam Hendriks.
After back to back division titles in 2017 & 2018, missing the playoffs in 2019 was a humbling experience and an opportunity to ground themselves. That opportunity seems to have not gone wasted. In 2021, the Spikes should see a dramatic improvement, finishing second in the AL and hosting a first round playoff series.
Utah Golden Spikes: 2nd place finish, 61-47
Landing just outside of the playoff pool in 2019, the Mud Hens have been on a mission to reclaim their spot atop the AL when they won the division in 2015 and 2016.
Following the death of their star pitcher Jose Fernandez during the 2016 World Series, the Mud Hens went into a tailspin. They failed to win another World Series game that year, losing 4 straight to Green Bay. They followed that up with 5th, 4th and 5th place finishes in the AL over the next 3 seasons.
Some people within the organization believe the year off in 2020 was a blessing in disguise; a chance to reset the compass and get things back on track. It looks like those folks may be right, as the Mud Hens have put together a power team ready to take on the world. Garnering top end talent at each position, Michigan will be the most difficult team to topple in a division that has plenty of teams that are going to be difficult to topple. The only thing stopping Michigan will be the giant ego covering the diamond. If the group can stay out of its own way and play as a team, this could be an ugly season for 13 other organizations.
Michigan Mud Hens: 1st place finish, 67-41
national league
- by Nick keene
With three franchises changing hands since the September Classic of 2019 including the defending back-to-back NL pennant-winning Green Bay Title Company (now the Tucson Silos), the National League will likely feature a number of rebuilding squads in 2021. But there is a viable path for every NL team to be playing in September 2021.
Perhaps the "easiest" prediction is the return of the defending NL regular-season champions, the Springfield Sons of Pitches (recently rebranded the Nashville Vols), to the postseason - but even they are only one season removed from a last-place finish. That said, Nashville is well-positioned to contend for the division crown with budding stars (Vlad Jr., Torres, and Tucker) and strong veterans (Bell, Ozuna) filling the lineup card, supported by a capable pitching staff.
Their strongest competition is likely to come from the Austin Red Birds, who appear primed for a rebound and loaded up and down the roster - both active and minors - as we approach Opening Day 2021. Despite being 36-31 in second place only 3.5 GB of Springfield on June 25, the Red Birds would go on to win only 8 of their remaining 41 games - thereby more than doubling their loss total and finishing 7 GB of the final playoff spot. Ownership tore it down pretty quickly in July, converting a number of pieces into high draft picks and other long-term assets. Trader John has continued the wheeling and dealing over the course of the past year and a half, and we are about to see the payoff starting in April. Dingers will not be a problem for this lineup. The biggest questions are probably pitching and health, but Austin is the opening favorite to win the division.
The rest of the National League is wide open, and we will start with the other three 2019 postseason participants. The Tucson Silos return mostly prospects and a handful of mostly young major-league talent, but new ownership will be hampered a bit in the near term by cap money and draft capital traded along the road to back-to-back World Series appearances. They have managed to pull off a series of trades here in March to position themselves for a run at the playoffs. After a late March mega deal shipping young stud Juan Soto to Michigan for four future first rounders and Alex Kirilloff, the Warren Warriors will look to extend their five-year streak of playoff appearances to six on the backs of Shohei Ohtani, Corey Seager, and Eduardo Rodriguez with the support of a young, up-and-coming pitching staff. That streak is the second-longest active, only behind the Washington Wolves - who have reached the playoffs six straight seasons and will look to reach the postseason for what would be the eleventh time in twelve seasons. Playing baseball in September will prove quite a feat for Washington in 2021 even from a standalone perspective as they look to surround centerpiece Devers with many new faces including an entirely new major-league pitching staff. The Wolves drafted well in March, and that should put them in the thick of the NL playoff race in August.
The two most obvious rebuilds ongoing in the ACBA are found in Zion Canyon and Indianapolis. The remnants of the Poconos Poetic Punishers were sold by ACBA HOFer Mitch Smith to a new owner from across the pond, who relocated the team to Zion Canyon. After a dizzying run of buyouts and trades in the first couple of weeks in February that netted a plethora of 2021 and future draft picks, the Emeralds begin their first season under new ownership with an entirely new cast in the batter's box and a few potentially budding stars on the mound that may help Zion collect some wins right away.
With the unusual benefit of two offseasons and therefore two annual drafts before playing a single game, the Indianapolis Iron Pigs might be on a fast track to success in their first official season in the ACBA. Through shrewd trading and a focus on young talent in the drafts - including many players getting ample opportunities in The Show already - the Iron Pigs might not have a single holdover from the Louisville River Bats. The franchise is in the midst of the longest active ACBA playoff drought, having not reached September baseball since 2014 as the Portsmouth Hustlers. Bounce back seasons from Alonso, Lindor, and Baez will be critical to the Iron Pigs pursuing a 2021 postseason berth, not to mention the overall trajectory of their rebuild. If they can get enough from their pitching staff and the young talent on the roster trends in the right direction, Indianapolis could be in the hunt come August.
Perhaps the "easiest" prediction is the return of the defending NL regular-season champions, the Springfield Sons of Pitches (recently rebranded the Nashville Vols), to the postseason - but even they are only one season removed from a last-place finish. That said, Nashville is well-positioned to contend for the division crown with budding stars (Vlad Jr., Torres, and Tucker) and strong veterans (Bell, Ozuna) filling the lineup card, supported by a capable pitching staff.
Their strongest competition is likely to come from the Austin Red Birds, who appear primed for a rebound and loaded up and down the roster - both active and minors - as we approach Opening Day 2021. Despite being 36-31 in second place only 3.5 GB of Springfield on June 25, the Red Birds would go on to win only 8 of their remaining 41 games - thereby more than doubling their loss total and finishing 7 GB of the final playoff spot. Ownership tore it down pretty quickly in July, converting a number of pieces into high draft picks and other long-term assets. Trader John has continued the wheeling and dealing over the course of the past year and a half, and we are about to see the payoff starting in April. Dingers will not be a problem for this lineup. The biggest questions are probably pitching and health, but Austin is the opening favorite to win the division.
The rest of the National League is wide open, and we will start with the other three 2019 postseason participants. The Tucson Silos return mostly prospects and a handful of mostly young major-league talent, but new ownership will be hampered a bit in the near term by cap money and draft capital traded along the road to back-to-back World Series appearances. They have managed to pull off a series of trades here in March to position themselves for a run at the playoffs. After a late March mega deal shipping young stud Juan Soto to Michigan for four future first rounders and Alex Kirilloff, the Warren Warriors will look to extend their five-year streak of playoff appearances to six on the backs of Shohei Ohtani, Corey Seager, and Eduardo Rodriguez with the support of a young, up-and-coming pitching staff. That streak is the second-longest active, only behind the Washington Wolves - who have reached the playoffs six straight seasons and will look to reach the postseason for what would be the eleventh time in twelve seasons. Playing baseball in September will prove quite a feat for Washington in 2021 even from a standalone perspective as they look to surround centerpiece Devers with many new faces including an entirely new major-league pitching staff. The Wolves drafted well in March, and that should put them in the thick of the NL playoff race in August.
The two most obvious rebuilds ongoing in the ACBA are found in Zion Canyon and Indianapolis. The remnants of the Poconos Poetic Punishers were sold by ACBA HOFer Mitch Smith to a new owner from across the pond, who relocated the team to Zion Canyon. After a dizzying run of buyouts and trades in the first couple of weeks in February that netted a plethora of 2021 and future draft picks, the Emeralds begin their first season under new ownership with an entirely new cast in the batter's box and a few potentially budding stars on the mound that may help Zion collect some wins right away.
With the unusual benefit of two offseasons and therefore two annual drafts before playing a single game, the Indianapolis Iron Pigs might be on a fast track to success in their first official season in the ACBA. Through shrewd trading and a focus on young talent in the drafts - including many players getting ample opportunities in The Show already - the Iron Pigs might not have a single holdover from the Louisville River Bats. The franchise is in the midst of the longest active ACBA playoff drought, having not reached September baseball since 2014 as the Portsmouth Hustlers. Bounce back seasons from Alonso, Lindor, and Baez will be critical to the Iron Pigs pursuing a 2021 postseason berth, not to mention the overall trajectory of their rebuild. If they can get enough from their pitching staff and the young talent on the roster trends in the right direction, Indianapolis could be in the hunt come August.
2019 final standings
2021 projected standings
postseason predictions
American League Divisional Series
(1) Michigan over (4) Flint (4-2)
(3) Senhollow over (2) Utah (4-3)
National League Divisional Series
(1) Austin over (4) Washington (4-1)
(2) Nashville over (3) Warren (4-2)
American League Championship
(1) Michigan over (3) Senhollow (4-3)
National League Championship
(1) Austin over (2) Nashville (4-3)
ACBA World Series
(1) Michigan over (1) Austin (4-2)
(1) Michigan over (4) Flint (4-2)
(3) Senhollow over (2) Utah (4-3)
National League Divisional Series
(1) Austin over (4) Washington (4-1)
(2) Nashville over (3) Warren (4-2)
American League Championship
(1) Michigan over (3) Senhollow (4-3)
National League Championship
(1) Austin over (2) Nashville (4-3)
ACBA World Series
(1) Michigan over (1) Austin (4-2)