2022 ACBA STRETCH RUn preview
**under construction**
With 93 games behind us and only 15 left until September baseball arrives in the ACBA for the first time in two years, we reflect on the season and consider what lies ahead with a power ranking (in reverse order).
Can only go up from here… but not this year (mathematically eliminated)
14) Missouri Mules
13) Zion Canyon Emeralds
These horses never really made it out of the gate. The Mules started the year as the Iron Pigs with new ownership, a number of nice contract pieces, and an opportunity to return the tough-luck franchise to the playoffs for the first time in years – but significant injuries and an overly heavy focus on the future left them with too short a bench or a starting rotation to compete in 2021. August brought another change in ownership and a move west to Missouri. A few immediate buyouts (notably Syndergaard and Lamet) provides some important cap flexibility heading into the offseason.
The Emeralds made obvious their long-term focus throughout the preseason and remain on track to match the pundits’ projections (albeit exceeding expectations with a likely 6th place finish). Their wheeling and dealing through the first half of the season resulted in more trades than anyone could reasonably count, as well as an incredible stash of draft picks and cap money through 2024. Sixto Sanchez was expected to be their best player under contract in 2021, and he was never even healthy enough to get on the big league mound – kind of sums up how it went for Zion this year. Even if this team misses the playoffs again in 2022 (not a foregone conclusion by any means), do not be surprised to see them contending for the division title in August 2023 – lots of youth and ammo to work with here.
Livin’ on a prayer (alive for now)
12) Utah Golden Spikes (9 GB of AL #4)
11) Senhollow Abory (7 GB of AL #4)
The preseason #2 and #3 teams in the American League, they were not particularly bad (44-49 and 46-47 as of August 9) – their division was simply even stronger than expected. To illustrate this – Utah is one win away from clinching a .500 finish in interleague play for every AL team. But some teams have to finish 6th and 7th in the division, and the two lowest-scoring teams in the AL by a good margin will likely do so.
Despite an abundance of injuries in addition to some underperforming stars, the Golden Spikes and Abory were both close enough to a playoff spot around the All-Star break that neither team specifically elected to sell. With better health and a few tweaks to the roster, these teams can contend again as soon as next spring.
It is probably worth keeping an eye on Senhollow. After finishing last in 2018, they won it all in 2019 but could finish last again in 2021. Lots of star power on the roster, but are some of those stars that helped them to three championships in ten years finally starting to fade whether due to age or health woes? Or will their rookies and prospects offset those declines and lead Senhollow into a new decade of glory?
Wild, wild west (race for final NL playoff spot)
10) Warren Warriors (2 GB of NL #4)
9) Washington Wolves (current NL #4; magic number to clinch playoff berth = 14)
We are feeling good about that preseason projection of a tie between the Warriors and Wolves – but we did not predict one of them to miss the playoffs as a result. Having dealt Soto and Ohtani (at what could turn out to have been the peak of Shotime fever) among other moves, Warren has been delicately threading the needle in 2021 – improving their long-term future while staying in the near-term hunt. After sitting in 4th place for most of the season, Warren’s five-year playoff streak is in jeopardy of coming to an end. They need to outperform Washington by three games in this final fifteen-game stretch, as the Wolves won the season series (7-4).
The Wolves meanwhile have been on a steady ascent as they seek their eleventh playoff appearance in twelve years. The hottest team in the National League since July 1 (18-9), Washington has found their stride at the right time and will certainly hope it carries them into September. If they make the playoffs, do not overlook their balanced attack including mid-season acquisition Yordan Alvarez, who is averaging nearly 5 PPG so far in August after a relatively cool July by his own absurd standards.
Wake me up when August ends (likely NL #3)
8) Austin Red Birds (current NL #3; magic number to clinch playoff berth = 8)
The preseason favorites in the NL were lingering in 2nd place for a good stretch of the season before slipping towards 3rd place and selling a large chunk of their roster, especially from the pitching staff. Even though the Red Birds were the only active sellers in 2021 outside of the rebuilding Emeralds, at six games behind Tucson and six ahead of Washington, they have the third seed in the NL all but officially wrapped up. They still have most of the same hitters that helped make them so formidable coming into the year and though the rest of the pitching staffs across the NL have an edge, they are not overwhelmingly better than what Austin has left. Still could make some noise in September but likely to fizzle short of a pennant.
Thank goodness for tiebreakers (race for final two AL playoff spots)
7) Sacramento Solons (tied for AL #4; 3 GB of AL #3)
6) Detroit Blue Devils (tied for AL #4; 3 GB of AL #3; magic number to clinch playoff berth = 16)
5) Lehigh Valley Black Diamonds (current AL #3; magic number to clinch playoff berth = 13)
Fun fact: what do these three teams have in common? None were expected to make the playoffs in 2021 – at least in the eyes of the pundits. Sacramento and Lehigh Valley were projected to miss by only one game, but Detroit was expected to finish last for the second straight year with a 39-69 record and 19 GB of the final spot in the American League playoffs. But with a little over three weeks to play, two of these three teams will almost certainly play into September.
Sacramento won the division title in 2019 and after a slow start in 2021, the Solons climbed as high as 3rd place before settling into a tie for 4th place with the also-surging Blue Devils. The two teams face off this week for the final time in the regular season. Detroit holds a 5-3 advantage, so this feels like a must-win series for Sacramento; taking 2 of 3 would give the Solons a one-game lead, but they would then need to at least match Detroit’s record over the final twelve games to avoid a tiebreaker scenario in which they would lose to Detroit. Conversely, Detroit taking 2 of 3 would give the Blue Devils a one-game lead by record but in reality a two-game lead by virtue of holding the head-to-head tiebreaker. A sweep in either direction would be devastating to whomever is on the wrong side of it; such a result would mean a 3-game lead plus tiebreaker – essentially a 4-game advantage with twelve to play.
The Black Diamonds would surely love to watch a sweep in that series, especially if they can win at least one of their next three games against Senhollow. Lehigh Valley is all too familiar with tiebreakers for the final playoff spot, having clinched their first-ever postseason berth that way on the final day of the 2019 season. They were hovering in or near first place in the AL for the first half of 2021, but injuries to their pitching rotation (most notably Bieber, deGrom, and Glasnow – all of whom are or could be done for 2021) have taken some of the wind out of their sails. After dropping 2 of 3 to Michigan over the weekend to fall 6 GB of the division lead including a heartbreaking half-point loss on Saturday on Will Smith's blown save, Lehigh Valley’s focus is no longer about trying to sneak back up and snag the division title; instead they need to win enough to hold off at least one of the two teams chasing them just to make the playoffs. Lehigh Valley holds the 6-5 head-to-head tiebreaker over Sacramento, but they trail Detroit 5-3 with their final head-to-head scheduled Aug 18-21.
Regardless of how this group plays out, can we take a moment to appreciate the 2021 Blue Devils? As of August 9, at 53-40 Detroit has already improved on their 2019 finish by +13 games; the only other team with guaranteed improvement in 2021 is Michigan at +6. Frankly their farm system is light, but they have pulled off a number of trades throughout 2021 that have reshaped the roster, increased their top-end talent under contract, and improved their cap situation moving forward. Even if they go 1-14 from here on out (they have one of the toughest remaining schedules but they will certainly do better than that), the Blue Devils will finish at least .500 and ahead of at least two division rivals in a year when they were expected as of Opening Day to be an also-ran. If Detroit makes the playoffs, Doug Robinson might collect his first Connie Mack Award in 2021, and he should merit some votes regardless.
A rose by any other name (NL division title contenders)
4) Tucson Silos (current NL #2; 4 GB of NL #1)
3) Nashville Vols (current NL #1; magic number to clinch division = 12)
When the ACBA last played in 2019, the Green Bay Title Company outlasted the Springfield Sons of Pitches in seven games before succumbing to Senhollow Abory in the World Series. It was Green Bay’s third World Series appearance in four years and sixth in nine years (2-4 all-time). Two offseasons and an ownership change later – including the return of Jack Frazier to the ACBA and bringing back the Tucson Silos after a multi-year hiatus – the franchise has pleasantly surprised the prognosticators in 2021 with a likely top-two finish in the standings. Overcoming the aftermath of back-to-back National League pennant runs with few veterans under contract and lots of money and draft picks traded away, Da Silos find themselves wheeling and dealing their way into immediate contention and a bright near-term future, assuming a successful navigation of their looming cap crunch in 2023. Co-manager Mike McKean likely deserves a good chunk of the credit for the success of this team.
Meanwhile the Sons of Pitches moved to Nashville and rebranded as the Vols – but they find themselves on the front stretch of a race they have basically led since the start, a second consecutive division title looming. Having already locked up their fifth playoff appearance in six years, Nashville is preparing for a run to capture their first-ever National League pennant. With most of their division having been in a rebuilding phase and likely to improve next year, this may be the cleanest path the Vols have to the World Series in the near future. After starting the year 18-3, Nashville cooled off going 39-33 since May 1 – but it is not like the rest of the National League has fared much better, if at all, during that time. The Vols made some moves to shore up their pitching staff in particular ahead of the trade deadline, and now they have to hope for good health, ideally including the return of Clayton Kershaw come early September.
Last note: if Da Silos can shave at least a couple of games off the lead before August 28, the division title could be on the line for the regular season finale between these two teams (Aug 28-31).
The crown is out for local delivery (AL division title contenders)
2) Flint Failures (current AL #2; 2 GB of AL #1)
1) Michigan Mud Hens (current AL #1; magic number to clinch division = 14)
Flint is chasing their second division title (first since 2014), but surely they are thinking - can we get a fourth AL pennant and a fourth World Series championship ring? Projected to finish 4th, the Failures looked average by AL standards in spring training, but clearly the upside has panned out for the 2021 iteration. Perhaps their best in-season pickup will turn out to be the return of Chris Sale from Tommy John surgery, set to debut this coming weekend.
Standing in their way: a two-game deficit behind the preseason World Series favorite, Michigan Mud Hens. After falling short of the playoffs in two of the last three seasons, despite having one of the highest point totals in 2019, management was aggressive coming into 2021, fielding a roster full of arguably the consensus #1 at most positions in the field. A first-place lead only seemed to further fuel management, as they went all-in and acquired Ohtani and Will Smith during the season among a number of other notable acquisitions and the promotion of Wander Franco.
The only thing prohibiting Michigan from a record-setting winning pace and an anticipated September domination is health. The injury bug has not spared their big names, including recurring shoulder problems for Tatis and a season-ending leg injury for Acuna. Even without a few pieces, this is probably still the most complete team on paper. Brent Ford is sure to garner votes for what could be his fourth Connie Mack.
The final head-to-head between the Failures and Mud Hens is set for Aug 22-27 and could determine the division winner. Michigan has a 5-3 lead in the season series, so between that and their two-game lead over Flint, the Failures will probably need to win that series if they are going to capture the division title. Otherwise, the Mud Hens will collect their third division title as they seek their second World Series appearance (both first sinc 2016) with a chance to bring home their first championship ring.
Can only go up from here… but not this year (mathematically eliminated)
14) Missouri Mules
13) Zion Canyon Emeralds
These horses never really made it out of the gate. The Mules started the year as the Iron Pigs with new ownership, a number of nice contract pieces, and an opportunity to return the tough-luck franchise to the playoffs for the first time in years – but significant injuries and an overly heavy focus on the future left them with too short a bench or a starting rotation to compete in 2021. August brought another change in ownership and a move west to Missouri. A few immediate buyouts (notably Syndergaard and Lamet) provides some important cap flexibility heading into the offseason.
The Emeralds made obvious their long-term focus throughout the preseason and remain on track to match the pundits’ projections (albeit exceeding expectations with a likely 6th place finish). Their wheeling and dealing through the first half of the season resulted in more trades than anyone could reasonably count, as well as an incredible stash of draft picks and cap money through 2024. Sixto Sanchez was expected to be their best player under contract in 2021, and he was never even healthy enough to get on the big league mound – kind of sums up how it went for Zion this year. Even if this team misses the playoffs again in 2022 (not a foregone conclusion by any means), do not be surprised to see them contending for the division title in August 2023 – lots of youth and ammo to work with here.
Livin’ on a prayer (alive for now)
12) Utah Golden Spikes (9 GB of AL #4)
11) Senhollow Abory (7 GB of AL #4)
The preseason #2 and #3 teams in the American League, they were not particularly bad (44-49 and 46-47 as of August 9) – their division was simply even stronger than expected. To illustrate this – Utah is one win away from clinching a .500 finish in interleague play for every AL team. But some teams have to finish 6th and 7th in the division, and the two lowest-scoring teams in the AL by a good margin will likely do so.
Despite an abundance of injuries in addition to some underperforming stars, the Golden Spikes and Abory were both close enough to a playoff spot around the All-Star break that neither team specifically elected to sell. With better health and a few tweaks to the roster, these teams can contend again as soon as next spring.
It is probably worth keeping an eye on Senhollow. After finishing last in 2018, they won it all in 2019 but could finish last again in 2021. Lots of star power on the roster, but are some of those stars that helped them to three championships in ten years finally starting to fade whether due to age or health woes? Or will their rookies and prospects offset those declines and lead Senhollow into a new decade of glory?
Wild, wild west (race for final NL playoff spot)
10) Warren Warriors (2 GB of NL #4)
9) Washington Wolves (current NL #4; magic number to clinch playoff berth = 14)
We are feeling good about that preseason projection of a tie between the Warriors and Wolves – but we did not predict one of them to miss the playoffs as a result. Having dealt Soto and Ohtani (at what could turn out to have been the peak of Shotime fever) among other moves, Warren has been delicately threading the needle in 2021 – improving their long-term future while staying in the near-term hunt. After sitting in 4th place for most of the season, Warren’s five-year playoff streak is in jeopardy of coming to an end. They need to outperform Washington by three games in this final fifteen-game stretch, as the Wolves won the season series (7-4).
The Wolves meanwhile have been on a steady ascent as they seek their eleventh playoff appearance in twelve years. The hottest team in the National League since July 1 (18-9), Washington has found their stride at the right time and will certainly hope it carries them into September. If they make the playoffs, do not overlook their balanced attack including mid-season acquisition Yordan Alvarez, who is averaging nearly 5 PPG so far in August after a relatively cool July by his own absurd standards.
Wake me up when August ends (likely NL #3)
8) Austin Red Birds (current NL #3; magic number to clinch playoff berth = 8)
The preseason favorites in the NL were lingering in 2nd place for a good stretch of the season before slipping towards 3rd place and selling a large chunk of their roster, especially from the pitching staff. Even though the Red Birds were the only active sellers in 2021 outside of the rebuilding Emeralds, at six games behind Tucson and six ahead of Washington, they have the third seed in the NL all but officially wrapped up. They still have most of the same hitters that helped make them so formidable coming into the year and though the rest of the pitching staffs across the NL have an edge, they are not overwhelmingly better than what Austin has left. Still could make some noise in September but likely to fizzle short of a pennant.
Thank goodness for tiebreakers (race for final two AL playoff spots)
7) Sacramento Solons (tied for AL #4; 3 GB of AL #3)
6) Detroit Blue Devils (tied for AL #4; 3 GB of AL #3; magic number to clinch playoff berth = 16)
5) Lehigh Valley Black Diamonds (current AL #3; magic number to clinch playoff berth = 13)
Fun fact: what do these three teams have in common? None were expected to make the playoffs in 2021 – at least in the eyes of the pundits. Sacramento and Lehigh Valley were projected to miss by only one game, but Detroit was expected to finish last for the second straight year with a 39-69 record and 19 GB of the final spot in the American League playoffs. But with a little over three weeks to play, two of these three teams will almost certainly play into September.
Sacramento won the division title in 2019 and after a slow start in 2021, the Solons climbed as high as 3rd place before settling into a tie for 4th place with the also-surging Blue Devils. The two teams face off this week for the final time in the regular season. Detroit holds a 5-3 advantage, so this feels like a must-win series for Sacramento; taking 2 of 3 would give the Solons a one-game lead, but they would then need to at least match Detroit’s record over the final twelve games to avoid a tiebreaker scenario in which they would lose to Detroit. Conversely, Detroit taking 2 of 3 would give the Blue Devils a one-game lead by record but in reality a two-game lead by virtue of holding the head-to-head tiebreaker. A sweep in either direction would be devastating to whomever is on the wrong side of it; such a result would mean a 3-game lead plus tiebreaker – essentially a 4-game advantage with twelve to play.
The Black Diamonds would surely love to watch a sweep in that series, especially if they can win at least one of their next three games against Senhollow. Lehigh Valley is all too familiar with tiebreakers for the final playoff spot, having clinched their first-ever postseason berth that way on the final day of the 2019 season. They were hovering in or near first place in the AL for the first half of 2021, but injuries to their pitching rotation (most notably Bieber, deGrom, and Glasnow – all of whom are or could be done for 2021) have taken some of the wind out of their sails. After dropping 2 of 3 to Michigan over the weekend to fall 6 GB of the division lead including a heartbreaking half-point loss on Saturday on Will Smith's blown save, Lehigh Valley’s focus is no longer about trying to sneak back up and snag the division title; instead they need to win enough to hold off at least one of the two teams chasing them just to make the playoffs. Lehigh Valley holds the 6-5 head-to-head tiebreaker over Sacramento, but they trail Detroit 5-3 with their final head-to-head scheduled Aug 18-21.
Regardless of how this group plays out, can we take a moment to appreciate the 2021 Blue Devils? As of August 9, at 53-40 Detroit has already improved on their 2019 finish by +13 games; the only other team with guaranteed improvement in 2021 is Michigan at +6. Frankly their farm system is light, but they have pulled off a number of trades throughout 2021 that have reshaped the roster, increased their top-end talent under contract, and improved their cap situation moving forward. Even if they go 1-14 from here on out (they have one of the toughest remaining schedules but they will certainly do better than that), the Blue Devils will finish at least .500 and ahead of at least two division rivals in a year when they were expected as of Opening Day to be an also-ran. If Detroit makes the playoffs, Doug Robinson might collect his first Connie Mack Award in 2021, and he should merit some votes regardless.
A rose by any other name (NL division title contenders)
4) Tucson Silos (current NL #2; 4 GB of NL #1)
3) Nashville Vols (current NL #1; magic number to clinch division = 12)
When the ACBA last played in 2019, the Green Bay Title Company outlasted the Springfield Sons of Pitches in seven games before succumbing to Senhollow Abory in the World Series. It was Green Bay’s third World Series appearance in four years and sixth in nine years (2-4 all-time). Two offseasons and an ownership change later – including the return of Jack Frazier to the ACBA and bringing back the Tucson Silos after a multi-year hiatus – the franchise has pleasantly surprised the prognosticators in 2021 with a likely top-two finish in the standings. Overcoming the aftermath of back-to-back National League pennant runs with few veterans under contract and lots of money and draft picks traded away, Da Silos find themselves wheeling and dealing their way into immediate contention and a bright near-term future, assuming a successful navigation of their looming cap crunch in 2023. Co-manager Mike McKean likely deserves a good chunk of the credit for the success of this team.
Meanwhile the Sons of Pitches moved to Nashville and rebranded as the Vols – but they find themselves on the front stretch of a race they have basically led since the start, a second consecutive division title looming. Having already locked up their fifth playoff appearance in six years, Nashville is preparing for a run to capture their first-ever National League pennant. With most of their division having been in a rebuilding phase and likely to improve next year, this may be the cleanest path the Vols have to the World Series in the near future. After starting the year 18-3, Nashville cooled off going 39-33 since May 1 – but it is not like the rest of the National League has fared much better, if at all, during that time. The Vols made some moves to shore up their pitching staff in particular ahead of the trade deadline, and now they have to hope for good health, ideally including the return of Clayton Kershaw come early September.
Last note: if Da Silos can shave at least a couple of games off the lead before August 28, the division title could be on the line for the regular season finale between these two teams (Aug 28-31).
The crown is out for local delivery (AL division title contenders)
2) Flint Failures (current AL #2; 2 GB of AL #1)
1) Michigan Mud Hens (current AL #1; magic number to clinch division = 14)
Flint is chasing their second division title (first since 2014), but surely they are thinking - can we get a fourth AL pennant and a fourth World Series championship ring? Projected to finish 4th, the Failures looked average by AL standards in spring training, but clearly the upside has panned out for the 2021 iteration. Perhaps their best in-season pickup will turn out to be the return of Chris Sale from Tommy John surgery, set to debut this coming weekend.
Standing in their way: a two-game deficit behind the preseason World Series favorite, Michigan Mud Hens. After falling short of the playoffs in two of the last three seasons, despite having one of the highest point totals in 2019, management was aggressive coming into 2021, fielding a roster full of arguably the consensus #1 at most positions in the field. A first-place lead only seemed to further fuel management, as they went all-in and acquired Ohtani and Will Smith during the season among a number of other notable acquisitions and the promotion of Wander Franco.
The only thing prohibiting Michigan from a record-setting winning pace and an anticipated September domination is health. The injury bug has not spared their big names, including recurring shoulder problems for Tatis and a season-ending leg injury for Acuna. Even without a few pieces, this is probably still the most complete team on paper. Brent Ford is sure to garner votes for what could be his fourth Connie Mack.
The final head-to-head between the Failures and Mud Hens is set for Aug 22-27 and could determine the division winner. Michigan has a 5-3 lead in the season series, so between that and their two-game lead over Flint, the Failures will probably need to win that series if they are going to capture the division title. Otherwise, the Mud Hens will collect their third division title as they seek their second World Series appearance (both first sinc 2016) with a chance to bring home their first championship ring.
PLAYOFF PICTURE (8/9/2021)
REMAINING OPPONENTS (TOP 10 ONLY; # = WINS as of 8/9/2021)
